You may have noticed a relatively new term being used in the financial media recently “Financial Repression” is the latest buzz word being bandied about. But it really isn’t a new idea and just means robbing savers to pay government debts.
Traditionally there were two routes open to government to pay down enormous deficits, one was to hyperinflate or repudiate on debts. To hyperinflate the government would simply print enormous sums of cash (Weimar Germany
The government in much the same way uses inflated money to pay back previous dear debts.
The second traditional path was to just default on the debt. The debt was eliminated by refusal to pay. Many times this refusal to pay drove the market price of the debt down. (Think African nations default on World Bank Bonds) to a couple of cents on the dollar. The defaulting nation thus buys back the debt for a song and expunges the debt.
The 3rd method is the currently referred “Financial Repression”, which uses a combination of inflation and low interest rates within a jacket of capital controls to take savers money gradually over time to pay government debts.
The first aspect of this program is Federal Reserve control of low interest rates upon savers and investors. The Federal Reserve manipulation of interest rates insures the loss of value 3 of 4% per annum, gradually debasing the currency and aiding in the repayment of debt.
The second force that is unleashed is that of inflation. Remember Bernanke’s recent speech where one of the key things the Fed was attempting to do is create inflationary pressures to prevent Deflation and Depression. Inflation is the government’s friend, it pushes people into higher and higher marginal Tax brackets thereby increasing government revenue. At the same time inflation reduces the debts the government owes. Recent Q.E. moves indicate this inflationary bias.
The third part of the government‘s agenda is capital controls whereby an investor’s ability to get their money out of the country into hard currency is curtailed.
Capital controls may take the form of confiscation of certain financial assets such as gold which the government did earlier in it’s history. The prevention of the populace from converting it’s dollars into gold would lock you into an investment tied to a declining dollar and make you a sheep ready for shearing.
Another form this control of assets could take could be mandatory exchange of retirement account assets such as 401K’s or IRA’s into government zero coupon bonds or treasury bond backed annuity schemes.
One face of this repression could be “Mandatory Safety” rules put on banks, insurance Co’s, credit unions to invest their funds in government debt this could be masked with the illusion of protecting depositors-policy holders from “low quality” investment in the private market place with different tiers of assets and corresponding safety levels, much as what is “supposedly” mandated by the Basel Accords on banks. By regulation the government could nudge financial institutions to load up on government debt.
One insidious aspect of this repression is that while savers would be forced to accept below inflation returns-Financial institutions would still be able to make healthy profits because banks make their profits on the spread of what they take in and pay out. Because banks are able to obtain funds at zero cost, they are able to lend out at very low rates and still make a healthy return. Banks and hedge funds also use substantial leverage to magnify gains several times. The fact that our banking system is a fractionalized reserve banking system also multiples profits for banks.
In looking at the current funding situation the treasury is in it can be argued that it is almost a requirement that the Fed keep interest rates low forever. Nominal debt due to current deficits is increasing at a rate now of a trillion and half plus per year. While most of this debt is very low interest rate debt, it is of short duration that is short term in nature. The overwhelming majority of the Treasury’s Debt structure is short term which means interest rate increase on the short end would have dramatic effects on total interest outlays. It has been calculated that at a point when the average for interest on T-Debts reaches 5 to 5&1/2% (Historically Normal Interest Levels), the entire tax collection on the U.S. U.S.
So in reviewing the options available to the government – Default , Hyperinflation or Financial Repression the later option seems the most likely solution. It is probably a question of whether repression is utilized as a pre-emptive measure or as a desperate Hail Mary Act. The hour is late, the game is down to the last few seconds, the two minute warning is here the total debt clock is winding down. Tick, Tick Tick!!!!!!
Art Laffer is a professor of Economic’s at USC. He was an economic advisor to President Reagan and along with Jack Kemp was a leading advocate of “Supply Side” economics and was a favorite of Larry Kudlow who is fellow “ Supply Sider”. Professor Laffer was the creator of the “ Laffer Curve” which demonstrated conclusively as rates of marginal taxation on capital are reduced total aggregate tax paid to the government rises.
Points to consider:
1. Laffer actually understates the inflationary impact of the expansion of the monetary base. The fractionalized banking system allows for 9 dollars of loans for each dollar of capital. In addition he fails to mention the multiplier effect on the loans made, this is not surprising as he is a non Keyensian and the multiplier was a key innovation developed by Keyens in his General Theory. Laffer also fails to mention in such an inflationary atmosphere the Velocity of money or Turnover greatly increase.
2. When the amount of expansion of the monetary base is considered the expansion of the money supply (M1) at 15% is not as dramatic as it should be. It could be surmised that this is due to a dearth of quality loan opportunities exists now. Households are contracting their finances so there are not qualified opportunities to lend. The banks therefore leave large amounts of capital on deposit at the Fed where they are now paid interest which generates a positive yield spread helping to strengthen Balance Sheets. This is a situation that eventually will change! As the banks begin lending this ocean of money must go someplace. It will be inflationary.
3. The final point to consider is that what Laffer describes in the U.S. with the Fed is going on all over the world. Central banks everywhere are rapidly creating new money supply as is the I.M.F. on a global basis – This indicates devaluation of all currencies, some faster relative to others such as the Dollar V.S. the Yuan as example. In esscence you have a race for the bottom.
In your last paragraph you mention “a race to the bottom” in devaluation of *all* currencies. I know that in the Weimar Republic with their hyperinflation it was localized there, and the same thing would be true in Zaire now. Would you happen to know: has there ever been anything close to a world hyperinflation? Did the existence of the gold standard prevent such a thing from happening?
Your understanding is correct. I believe that Laffer understates possible inflationary impacts in his article.
In answer to your question about world wide hyperinflation: Upon reflection I cannot think of a incidence in modern times. Most “Weimar” type of inflations have taken place on a national basis – Nationalist China, Russia (a couple of times), Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Argentina ( again more than once). I would say a regionalized type of inflation has existed on a hyper basis several times with a group of South American Banana Republics at the same time. On a more historical basis Europe during the Napoleonic Wars had hyperinflation to finance their war. The Roman controlled world (The Roman Empire) experienced inflation when Rome debased their coinage.
Thinking about these cases of hyperinflation caused me to realize something common to all in modern times. The hyperinflation was a prelude politically the rise of “ Strongman” rule in almost all cases. Hilter in Germany, Sukarno in Indonesia, Peron in Argentina – Military Juanta’s in Chile and Latin America, Chang and Mao in China, and variours strong man dictators in Africa. (Zimbabwe, Zaire and numerous others) This may have ominous implications for the future.
One final thing to remember when we and Laffer discuss inflation rates, we are talking about official government rates based on official rates of exchange. Many parts of the developing world have an active “Black Market Economy” where most of the common people do their daily transactions. So it would be quite possible for official rates to be far below “ Black Market” rates that could be hyperinflationary.
One of the more troubling aspects of this for me is that unlike the 1930′s when we were more rural than we are now (and hence had better access to food locally), now as a society it seems that we are far more interdependent on outside sources of food. This will not be a good thing if the global economy has much of a breakdown at all.