A History of Home Value

This is for national figures in the aggregate!   In high boom areas (such as Santa Barbara) the high was much higher thus the equivalent bust will be bigger – Notice as dire as these numbers look they do not even approach the declines of the 20’s and the Depression which were well below the historical trend.  History shows in the bust of large booms  almost always prices go below the trend line – Thus Shiller is very optimistic.

Total Credit Market Debt as a % of GDP

(In 1945 to 1950 were boom times, but no debt due to fact it was paid for by forced savings from war years.  Notice the angle of income has now become parabolic, always seen before collapse!)

Thus if deleveraging is going clear the system of debt it needs a more severe contraction than the Depression provided. – Note Total Debt has continued to expand not contract.  There is an ocean of Debt out there that will never be repaid.  It will at some point become impossible to service that Debt, at that point it will be renounced devaluation appears the only road to deal with it.  The question is will it be gradual or take place at once. – Chart A represents the U.S.   But this is going on a world wide basis. – It Cannot continue indefinitely.